Category Archives: unemployment

State swells ranks as job losses grow

Almost 50000 people joined South Africa’s growing ranks of the unemployed in the first six months of this year, as the embattled economy continued to bleed jobs in critical sectors like mining and manufacturing Adcorp reported yesterday.

But while employment in the private sector shrunk, government employment swelled by 6.2% in the same period.

“The public sector now accounts for all the job creation in the economy for 2011 as a whole,” says Adcorp labour market analyst Loane Sharp, adding that last month’s employment decline was sharpest in the manufacturing (19.9%), mining (19.3%) and construction (16%) sectors.

One glimmer of hope comes from the unofficial sector, which continued to create jobs, says Sharp.

In August the sector employed 16 917 additional people, enhancing the “informalisation” of the country’s workforce,” he says.

But the harsh reality is that each job lost by a breadwinner has a devastating knock-on effect on the people who depend on them, says Brait chief economist Colen Garrow.

“It is deeply hurting every time people lose their jobs because one lay-off may affect five to eight family members,” said

“For poor families the result of a lost job by a breadwinner will even derail the education of the young ones. Without any doubt, the deteriorating of job losses situation will push a number of families into deep poverty, added Garrow.

The continuing haemorrhaging of jobs in the SA economy is highlighted in the August Adcorp Employment Index.

It reveals that the mining, manufacturing and construction sectors, all key drivers of the economy, shed jobs at double-digit rates, leading to calls by economists for urgent corrective action.

The authoritative reports blame the crowding by government of private sector participation in the economy as one reason for SA’s dismal employment picture.

The loss of 50000 jobs within six months is seen as a catastrophe by economic observers, especially as it comes on top of the more than 1 million jobs already lost during the ongoing financial crisis.

The Adcorp index overall employment declined by 2.1% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

It warns that employment conditions remain “exceedingly weak”, suggesting that the prospect of an improvement in permanent jobs was a long way off.

Garrow said it was difficult to see how government could reach its ambitious target of creating 5million jobs by 2020.

While the New Growth Path (NGP) targeted unskilled and semiskilled workers, the sectors it targeted were precisely the ones that were shedding jobs, notably manufacturing and mining.

“It’s abundantly clear that for the economy to grow at a more respectable pace, a drastic rethink is required on the labour market,” he said.

“Scrapping the minimum wage to get more people actively involved in the economy, is a start and long overdue.”

Econometrix chief economist, Tony Twine, said that both the manufacturing and mining sectors had been through turbulent and uncertain times.

It was not surprising they were not rushing out to hire people and expanding their workforce, he said.

“We are faced with the paradox that these sectors have been identified to absorb labour, just at the time when their employment levels are falling.”

But, Chris Hart, Investment Solutions chief economist, argued that the main reason for the lack of job creation was that labour laws were too hostile to small business and “very obstructive” to creating jobs.

“One of the biggest problems is that there is too much policy uncertainty, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors – something which investors shy away from.

“The solution for this problem is simple. The government must aim at creating 20 million jobs in five years, instead of the projected 5 million jobs in the next 10 years,” Hart said.

Article courtesy of The New Age – for the original article, please click here


Can Obama save US from double dip?

A quick economic rescue is not likely in the US says Investment Solutions chief economist Chris Hart, the US president paying mostly lip service to voters and business

The US has announced a $447billion jobs plan that’s going to involve tax cuts for workers and small businesses, but the end effect is unlikely to pull America out of a second recession.

That’s the view of Investment Analyst, Chris Hart, speaking on Summit TV.

“There are tax cuts for small businesses,” said Mr Hart, “but there aren’t regulatory cuts.”

They don’t want to cut down the protection Americans have enjoyed for a long time, adding that the number of rules and regulations which now dominate American business is seriously affecting growth.

“It goes from the sublime to the ridiculous where they regulate almost everything down to the size of a loaf of bread,” he said, “so there can’t be that much relief with R40billion in compliance costs.”

Mr Hart said that an enormous amount of money was being spent on compliance by companies, people effectively working for the government rather than the other way around.

“There’s a lot of detail that’s missing in Mr Obama’s plan,” said Mr Hart.

Issues the Obama government is grappling with is how to help home owners across the US, and prevent teachers getting laid off with the budget cuts.

“The plan looks to be reasonably uncontentious – in other words there is something in it for everyone, and a nice big fat compromise that in itself is often a sub-optimal solution anyway.”

Mr Hart felt that the plan would be passed at some stage, but in a different form.

“There is going to have to be some grand-standing and there could be some improvements – but there is going to be a little bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul because it has to be neutral on the budget where spending here is going to have to be taken away from somewhere else.

Mr Hart felt that what was going to be cut could be contentious, but also said that spending by Washington to create jobs and prosperity was a misnomer.

“Government spending typically has a much lower multiplier than investment spending by business – when governments spend money that reduces the amount of money that’s then available in the investment sector of the economy.”

Mr Hart said the unintended consequences of government spending were not often appreciated.


Continuing strike action will damage economy & investment

Several economists agree that if strike action continues it could negatively affect the economy, though the extent to which it would do so would depend on how long the strikes last, and how crucial the affected industries are to the general economy.

Chris Hart, an economist at Investment Solutions, said: “Because the strikes have not yet been protracted, we’re not talking about any major impact yet. But as the strike becomes more protracted, we can expect a negative impact on third-quarter GDP growth. And the slowdown in productivity comes on the backdrop of a global slowdown, which could affect job creation,” Hart said.

Dawie Roodt, an economist at Efficient Group, shares this view. “I don’t think there will be major impact on the economy yet. A lot of the time with these strikes there is a lot of noise, but very little impact.”

Economist Mike Schussler takes a more cautious view. “Generally with strikes, after a week it becomes difficult to make up productivity and so the economic impact will depend on how long the strikes go on,” he said.

The Chemical, Energy, Paper, Printing, Wood and Allied Workers Union (Ceppwawu) and the General Industries Workers Union of SA (Giwusa), which represent about 70,000 workers, announced yesterday that they would go on a strike beginning on Monday over wage increases and other employee benefits. The unions represent the petroleum, industrial chemicals, pharmaceutical, glass, fast-moving consumer goods and tissue industries.

This followed the commencement of a nationwide strike in the engineering sector, led by the National Union of Metalworkers in SA (Numsa), with mass action rolled out on Monday. The unions are demanding improved working conditions for workers and an increase in wages of between 11% and 13%, while employers are only offering between 4% and 7%.

Hart thinks that there is nothing wrong with wanting an above-inflation increase, but that it has to be put into context.

Personally, I am not against above-inflation increases but it cannot take place if it damages the economy; it has to be matched with productivity. It is unfortunate that in SA we have built wage negotiations around inflation, but one needs to look at other issues that are related to productivity otherwise SA will not be competitive enough globally,” he said.

The consensus among the economists was that the impending Ceppwawu strike could potentially have more of an impact on the economy the longer it continues.

“The petrol strike will potentially have more of an impact because it affects more businesses and more people. But the extent of the damage will depend on how long it goes on for. I mean, can you imagine not being able to get petrol in Gauteng for a week? It could be devastating,” Roodt said.

The strikes could affect the economy in other ways, significantly the perceptions of international investors.

Economist Mike Schussler feels, however, that we should be paying more attention to local investors and businessmen, and not only international investors.

“Locally, a lot of people are worried, they want to close down factories, and are looking to doing less business in SA due to things like nationalisation and strikes. So more attention must be paid to easing the mind of our local investors,” he said.

Roodt thinks that it’s unfortunate that it is considered quite normal for SA to have a “strike season”, as he puts it, and that it is something that investors have to unfortunately get used to.

Hart agrees with this sentiment, adding that this also highlights weak labour legislation.

“It is unfortunate that it almost seems as if striking is part of the routine for wage negotiations, which shows the utter failure of our labour laws,” he said.

Hart also thinks that these strikes could have a negative impact on job creation and social stability in the long term.

“In the long term, the strike is not just about lost production, but when wage settlements are made for above inflation rates, jobs could be lost and in the long term this will cause social unrest due to poverty,” he said

Article via Business Live – click here to view original article


SA entrepreneurship ‘on same level as Gaza Strip’

SA’s success rate in establishing new enterprises is comparable to that of the Gaza Strip and Romania.

SARAH HUDLESTON

WHEN it comes to getting new businesses past the three-and-a-half-year mark, SA has an abysmal record, according to the latest Global Entrepreneurship Monitor .

 

 

SA’s success rate in establishing new enterprises is comparable to that of the Gaza Strip and Romania.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liz Zambonini, CEO of The Hope Factory, which was started by the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants, and which trains would-be entrepreneurs, said last week that the problem lay in a lack of skills development, mainly a lack of entrepreneurship training at high-school level, poor access to finance and to markets, as well as a lack of self- confidence in SA’s youth.

 

 

“Entrepreneurship needs both dynamism and stability. Dynamism occurs through the creation of new businesses and the exit of nonviable ones. Stability comes from providing new businesses with the best chance to test and reach their potential,” she said.

 

 

“Entrepreneurship in a society should contain a variety of business phases and types led by different types of entrepreneurs, including women, which is where initiatives such as ours come in.”

 

 

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor surveyed 59 economies, diverse geographically and in size, which together covered more than 52% of the world’s population and 84% of its gross domestic product.

 

 

 

 

“As SA has one of the highest failure rates of business start-ups in the world, investment and support of these businesses is critical, such as through business incubator programmes or solid mentorship programmes,” Ms Zambonini said.

 

 

“Our concern is that the global average for new businesses reaching the three-and- half-year mark is 7,6%, while the success rate for SA is only 2,1%.

 

 

“We also have one of the lowest new business start-up rates in the world. We need to focus on growing the base to get the volume we need,” she said.

 

 

 

 

Investment Solutions economist Chris Hart said one of the main reasons entrepreneurs failed to thrive in SA was the hostile regulatory environment.

 

 

“It is very difficult for small businesses to operate within the confines of the law. It is impossible for would-be entrepreneurs to build up enough capital from savings in which to launch businesses. Taxation is a big negative in this regard,” he said.

 

 

“If job creation was SA’s major priority, it would look to the informal sector and embrace it. Informal traders should be encouraged and not harassed by the police — 20-million new jobs in three years in the informal sector would be a real solution.”

Article via Business Day – click here to view original article

 

 

 

 

 

 


Close corporation liquidations rise in April

“Small businesses are critical to employment, and South Africa’s business regulators and Labour environment have become hostile. This makes doing business difficult” – Chris Hart

Though company liquidations within the first four months in 2011 decreased by 2,1%, close corporations liquidations increased by 5,8% (from 692 to 732), compared to the same period in 2010. This according to Stats SA’s April 2011 preliminary liquidations and insolvencies report.

Investment Solutions chief economist, Chris Hart says the economic recovery is mainly visible in bigger companies and small businesses continue to struggle.

“What you see on the stock exchange is completely different from what you see in your ‘mom and pop’ stores. We’re going through an economic recovery which is rooted only in big business as they have better access to credit application than smaller establishments,” says Hart.

“Small businesses are critical to employment, and South Africa’s business regulators and labour environment have become hostile. This makes doing business difficult,” says Hart

A 25,4% year-on-year decrease in the number of total liquidations was recorded for April 2011. According to Stats SA’s, company liquidations for three months ended April 2011 dropped by 7,3% (from 1096 to 1016) compared to April 2010.

Stats SA says there were less voluntary and compulsory liquidation in the three months leading to April 2011.

“The decline in the number of liquidations for the three months ended April 2011 was driven by lower figures reported in voluntary liquidations (from 1 037 to 962) and compulsory liquidations (from 59 to 54), at -7,2% and -8,5% respectively,” states Stats SA.

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services recorded the highest number of liquidations with 493 liquidations cases equivalent to 37,1% followed by wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation industry with 350 cases or 26,3%.

Insolvencies in the first quarter of 2011 decreased by 30,5%, from 836 to 581 compared to the corresponding period in 2010.

Article via FM.co.za – click here to see original article


Setting itself up to fail

Scepticism has been the overwhelming response to government’s ambitious new growth and job creation targets. Government has failed to meet similar targets before, so why should it be any different this time?

The Growth, Employment & Redistribution strategy, introduced in 1996, envisioned SA attaining a growth rate of 6% and creating 400000 employment opportunities by 2000, neither of which materialised. It was followed by the Accelerated & Shared Growth Initiative for SA , which also promised a 6% growth rate. Now the New Growth Path is aiming for 7% growth and 5m new jobs in 10 years.

But even if SA grows at its potential of 4% for the next three years, it will only just make up the jobs lost during the recession. It seems inevitable that the latest targets will also be missed.

“Government won’t create the millions of jobs required by making mild tilts to policy,” says Investment Solutions chief strategist Chris Hart. “SA faces a national emergency. Radical shifts are required.”

He suggests taxes on savings and investment be eliminated so as to put money back into households and businesses “since entrepreneurial activity is the source of all wealth creation”.

The idea is to shift the tax burden so that if you invest in the economy you save money but if you go shopping it costs more. This means raising consumption taxes like Vat while eliminating things like capital gains tax, transfer duties and taxes on interest earned.

The long-term trend in SA runs the other way. Government is drawing an increasing amount away from the private, productive side of the economy and redirecting it towards consumption. Tax revenue has climbed from 22% of GDP in 1994 to over 25% in 2010/2011. By 2013/2014 it is set to be over 26%, assuming there are no changes to tax policy. But with National Health Insurance (NHI) looming, higher taxes are inevitable.

Numerous studies show government expenditure is not as efficient in generating economic growth as spending by the private sector. Given that economic growth is SA’s number one priority, and given government’s stated acceptance that private enterprise drives growth and job creation, the growing transfer of resources from the private to the public sector makes little sense. It makes even less sense when government is admittedly inefficient.

Though the New Growth Path acknowledges the lack of capacity in the civil service , it presses ahead with allocating an active and dominating role in the economy to the state.

Not only is SA shifting too many resources from the private to the public sector but within government, too much is being spent on consumption as opposed to investment. Public servants’ salaries now account for 40% of consolidated noninterest expenditure.

Treasury concedes that wage pressures, higher interest payments and social grants are together growing so fast that they are sapping government’s ability to maintain the pace of capital spending.

The bottom line, according to Hart, is that as long as government continues to divert more resources away from the production side of the economy, it will fail to generate sufficient jobs.

Nedbank chief economist Dennis Dykes counters that while there is no doubt that in the long term strong, sustainable growth in fixed investment is highly important, it’s not going to be the big job generator in the short term. For that, you need to generate demand .

Business invests in response to two main motivators: evidence of sustained, stronger growth and evidence it is running out of capacity. Neither is prevalent now.

Dykes also blames policy uncertainty for the private sector’s reluctance to invest, especially in sectors like mining and agriculture, where pronouncements on nationalisation and worries over new security of tenure legislation have business running for the hills.

And yet, government believes business is going to rush into fixed investment and job creation activities. Treasury has a history of being vainly optimistic about the pace of fixed investment. Last February, it forecast that gross fixed capital formation for 2009 would come in at 4%. The actual number was -2,2%. This year, it is forecasting almost 4% growth after a contraction of 3,6% last year.

“The big problem is that business is being given sweets for engaging in certain job-creating activity — like the R5bn youth employment subsidy, extension to learnerships and tax breaks for manufacturing investment. At the same time other departments are whacking it over the head, promising that if it creates jobs, it’s going to be severely punished,” explains Dykes. He cites the prospect of “Orwellian” amendments to labour legislation as an example of “the big stick” approach.

In addition, government is contemplating using a payroll tax (paid by employers) to fund NHI. The message to business is: don’t hire, because it’s going to cost you.

“Government has to decide if the private sector is an ally or an enemy,” says Dykes. “At the moment, the private sector is like a deer caught in headlights. You just can’t expect it to invest or create jobs in such a threatening environment.”

So what else would economists like to see government do to get job creation going? For many, it is to go back to basics. “Complex, ambitious programmes will not succeed until government has resolved the basic problems in the education system, primary health care, infrastructure (including maintenance), democratic institutions and the creation of a culture of entrepreneurship,” says Sanlam group economist Jac Laubscher. Dykes agrees.

Hart has some imaginative suggestions. He would like to see mining firms be given tax breaks for buying locally made capital goods, arguing that this could stimulate local manufacturing of heavy equipment that is currently imported. Creating a metals exchange in Johannesburg is another idea which could generate jobs, he says.

“Both these examples would be easy for the mines to participate in, as opposed to something like diamond cutting, which is what is traditionally thought of as beneficiation.”

 

Article courtesy of Financial Mail – please click here to see original article


ANC thinks again on its ‘decent work’ drive

‘Nothing more (degrading) than being unemployed’ — Mantashe

SAM MKOKELI and SIBONGAKONKE SHOBA

THE African National Congress (ANC) yesterday appeared to be dropping its emphasis on “decent work” in favour of creating more jobs — in a step that signals a potentially radical change for SA’s labour-friendly environment.

The about-turn came as ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe released a breakdown of the jobs the ANC wants to see created under the government’s New Growth Path document.

The party is pushing to implement the document’s proposals despite objections from some in the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu).

Mr Mantashe told a briefing after an ANC lekgotla that the jobs the party wanted to see need not necessarily be “decent” — as there was “nothing more (degrading) than being unemployed”.

He said calling for the jobs to be decent was “putting the cart before the horse”. Mr Mantashe said the ANC lekgotla last week instructed ministers to present plans to create jobs in their areas at the Cabinet lekgotla, taking place in Limpopo until Thursday.

His views were echoed in an address yesterday by former World Bank chief economist Joseph Stiglitz, who said in Pretoria: “Unemployment is very bad for the unemployed’s sense of wellbeing, sense of dignity….”

Prof Stiglitz, who serves on the government’s economic advisory panel, gave President Jacob Zuma ’s jobs agenda the thumbs up and mooted initiatives to counter climate change, which could be a driver for economic growth and employment.

Mr Mantashe’s remarks suggest a departure from the party’s 2007 Polokwane declaration of “making the creation of decent work opportunities the primary focus of economic policies”.

Experts have warned that the focus on “decent work” would make it even more difficult to make inroads into SA’s problem of large-scale unemployment.

Dropping the emphasis on decent work — also a central plank of the ANC’s 2009 election manifesto — suggests a significant change of tone in the ANC’s approach to unemployment, which stood at 25,3% at the end of the third quarter last year.

“Our view is that jobs must be created. Once created, then those people can engage on conditions of employment,” Mr Mantashe said. His comments are certain to upset Cosatu, which has also made “decent work” a central feature of its programmes.

Cosatu has already had to give way on aspects of the New Growth Path, but last night its spokesman, Patrick Craven, refused to give ground on the matter.

“Cosatu fully supports the ANC’s Polokwane policy resolutions that stress … creating decent jobs, and we stand by that,” Mr Craven said.

The labour federation objected to some parts of the document at the ANC’s lekgotla last week, but Mr Mantashe said the gathering had agreed to go ahead with implementation and to rectify “contradictions” at a later stage.

Chris Hart, an economist at Investment Solutions, said Mr Mantashe’s statement was not necessarily a departure from the ANC’s Polokwane resolutions.

“The aim is to create decent jobs. But the reality is that at this stage the priority is to create jobs. Five million ‘not so decent jobs’ is better than 20000 permanent jobs,” said Mr Hart.

Mr Mantashe also released the ANC’s estimates of jobs that could be created from the proposals contained in a new policy document.

It envisages 250000 new jobs in agriculture, 140000 in mining and beneficiation, 225000 in tourism, 50000 in business services and 300000 in the green economy by 2020, increasing to 400000 in this sector by 2030.

Mr Mantashe said infrastructure development could create 250000 jobs, while employment growth in the public service would rise 10%. The ANC also wants to create 100000 new jobs in the “knowledge” economy and 260000 in the social economy.

Article courtesy of BusinessDay online – please click here to see the original article


‘Mini budget’ tabled today

Pretoria – Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will this afternoon present the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) before Parliament.

The statement comes hot on the heels of the announcement by Cabinet yesterday of a new growth path for the South African economy. The new economic growth path intends to address crippling unemployment, inequality and poverty through unlocking employment opportunities in the private sector.

Commenting on the mini budget, Investment Solutions senior economist Chris Hart said the important issue was how to get higher growth. “It will be interesting to see what comes out,” he said of the 2pm tabling of the MTBPS.

Minister Gordhan had earlier said the actual growth of the economy for 2010 could be higher than the forecast in the budget.

Other issues of importance include the strength of the rand, which rose to one of its highest levels last week at R6.76 to the Dollar. Government finances were likely to have improved, with tax returns going back to the South African Revenue Services quicker.

Nedbank economist Isaac Matshego expects an announcement in relation to exchange controls.

Standard Bank senior economist Dr Johan Botha said: “I don’t think [there will be] major decisions but we can expect to see that the deficit will come down based on solid revenue flows to date this year. There might also be removal of exchange restrictions that remain”. – BuaNews

please click here to see original article


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