Monthly Archives: September 2011

State swells ranks as job losses grow

Almost 50000 people joined South Africa’s growing ranks of the unemployed in the first six months of this year, as the embattled economy continued to bleed jobs in critical sectors like mining and manufacturing Adcorp reported yesterday.

But while employment in the private sector shrunk, government employment swelled by 6.2% in the same period.

“The public sector now accounts for all the job creation in the economy for 2011 as a whole,” says Adcorp labour market analyst Loane Sharp, adding that last month’s employment decline was sharpest in the manufacturing (19.9%), mining (19.3%) and construction (16%) sectors.

One glimmer of hope comes from the unofficial sector, which continued to create jobs, says Sharp.

In August the sector employed 16 917 additional people, enhancing the “informalisation” of the country’s workforce,” he says.

But the harsh reality is that each job lost by a breadwinner has a devastating knock-on effect on the people who depend on them, says Brait chief economist Colen Garrow.

“It is deeply hurting every time people lose their jobs because one lay-off may affect five to eight family members,” said

“For poor families the result of a lost job by a breadwinner will even derail the education of the young ones. Without any doubt, the deteriorating of job losses situation will push a number of families into deep poverty, added Garrow.

The continuing haemorrhaging of jobs in the SA economy is highlighted in the August Adcorp Employment Index.

It reveals that the mining, manufacturing and construction sectors, all key drivers of the economy, shed jobs at double-digit rates, leading to calls by economists for urgent corrective action.

The authoritative reports blame the crowding by government of private sector participation in the economy as one reason for SA’s dismal employment picture.

The loss of 50000 jobs within six months is seen as a catastrophe by economic observers, especially as it comes on top of the more than 1 million jobs already lost during the ongoing financial crisis.

The Adcorp index overall employment declined by 2.1% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

It warns that employment conditions remain “exceedingly weak”, suggesting that the prospect of an improvement in permanent jobs was a long way off.

Garrow said it was difficult to see how government could reach its ambitious target of creating 5million jobs by 2020.

While the New Growth Path (NGP) targeted unskilled and semiskilled workers, the sectors it targeted were precisely the ones that were shedding jobs, notably manufacturing and mining.

“It’s abundantly clear that for the economy to grow at a more respectable pace, a drastic rethink is required on the labour market,” he said.

“Scrapping the minimum wage to get more people actively involved in the economy, is a start and long overdue.”

Econometrix chief economist, Tony Twine, said that both the manufacturing and mining sectors had been through turbulent and uncertain times.

It was not surprising they were not rushing out to hire people and expanding their workforce, he said.

“We are faced with the paradox that these sectors have been identified to absorb labour, just at the time when their employment levels are falling.”

But, Chris Hart, Investment Solutions chief economist, argued that the main reason for the lack of job creation was that labour laws were too hostile to small business and “very obstructive” to creating jobs.

“One of the biggest problems is that there is too much policy uncertainty, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors – something which investors shy away from.

“The solution for this problem is simple. The government must aim at creating 20 million jobs in five years, instead of the projected 5 million jobs in the next 10 years,” Hart said.

Article courtesy of The New Age – for the original article, please click here


Pushing up VAT ‘the least damaging way to fund NHI’

(this article got quite a few comments – please click here to link directly to the Mail & Guardian website to read the original article…)

An increase in Value Added Tax (VAT) would go a long way in helping to meet the government’s goal of funding an effective National Health Insurance (NHI) within 14 years, experts say. 

Several economists who spoke to the Mail & Guardian on Monday feel that raising the tax on all purchased goods would be the most effective way of financing the NHI.

“It is the least damaging way of funding the NHI as our income and company tax is already too high,” says Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group.

These thoughts are echoed by Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings, who feels the cost burden of a comprehensive health scheme should be borne by the whole population.

“There is no doubt that the government needs to increase its coffers to pay for this and it’s not an unreasonable suggestion, seeing as though all will benefit from NHI — this way everyone will pay,” Lings says.

Consumption drives consumption
Chris Hart, chief economist at Investment Solutions, says the cost of NHI would be significantly offset by raising VAT: it would tie funding to the nation’s ability to spend.

“VAT is driven by consumption, which is exactly what the NHI is. The costs can be offset to a certain extent within the consumptive chain,” Hart tells the M&G.

The comments follow a report in the Times on Monday that the treasury’s is apparently warming to the idea of an increase in VAT.

The department’s chief director of economic tax analysis and tax policy, Cecil Morden is quoted as saying that “a higher VAT rate could be justified on efficiency grounds” and that at 14%, South Africa’s VAT rate is “relatively low when compared to the worldwide average of 16.4%”.

This is the first sign that government is seriously considering the idea of a higher VAT rate. Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has so far remained mum as to how the scheme will be funded.

It is expected that NHI could cost in the region of R125-billion in 2012 and R214-billion by 2020, according to a government’s green policy paper on the issue released in August.

Based on recent financial data, this would equate to 6% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012.

An NHI pilot project is expected to be launched across the country in 2012, following the conclusion of an audit currently being undertaken at the country’s about 4 200 health facilities. If VAT were to be increased, it would be the first time the tax has risen since 1993 after it was first introduced in 1990, at a rate of 10%, as a substitute to General Sales Tax (GST).

Don’t target the poor
The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) is strongly against the idea of raising VAT, as this would put those who are most economically vulnerable at risk.

“It’s something we will continue to have an issue with. The NHI aims at accessibility and affordability but if you rely on VAT, it defeats the purpose by placing pressure on those with the least money. Those who are supposed to benefit will suffer the most,” Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini tells the M&G.

Dlamini believes that although the NHI has become a non-negotiable goal for government, its cost must never “fall on the shoulders of the poor”.

Hart counters this argument with a suggestion that VAT should only be increased substantially on luxury or non-essential items.

“I don’t see anybody who buys a flat-screen TV having a problem with a portion of the VAT included on the item being increased to fund NHI — so the poor won’t be affected,” Hart says.

Article courtesy of Mail & Guardian – please click here to see original article

 


Can Obama save US from double dip?

A quick economic rescue is not likely in the US says Investment Solutions chief economist Chris Hart, the US president paying mostly lip service to voters and business

The US has announced a $447billion jobs plan that’s going to involve tax cuts for workers and small businesses, but the end effect is unlikely to pull America out of a second recession.

That’s the view of Investment Analyst, Chris Hart, speaking on Summit TV.

“There are tax cuts for small businesses,” said Mr Hart, “but there aren’t regulatory cuts.”

They don’t want to cut down the protection Americans have enjoyed for a long time, adding that the number of rules and regulations which now dominate American business is seriously affecting growth.

“It goes from the sublime to the ridiculous where they regulate almost everything down to the size of a loaf of bread,” he said, “so there can’t be that much relief with R40billion in compliance costs.”

Mr Hart said that an enormous amount of money was being spent on compliance by companies, people effectively working for the government rather than the other way around.

“There’s a lot of detail that’s missing in Mr Obama’s plan,” said Mr Hart.

Issues the Obama government is grappling with is how to help home owners across the US, and prevent teachers getting laid off with the budget cuts.

“The plan looks to be reasonably uncontentious – in other words there is something in it for everyone, and a nice big fat compromise that in itself is often a sub-optimal solution anyway.”

Mr Hart felt that the plan would be passed at some stage, but in a different form.

“There is going to have to be some grand-standing and there could be some improvements – but there is going to be a little bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul because it has to be neutral on the budget where spending here is going to have to be taken away from somewhere else.

Mr Hart felt that what was going to be cut could be contentious, but also said that spending by Washington to create jobs and prosperity was a misnomer.

“Government spending typically has a much lower multiplier than investment spending by business – when governments spend money that reduces the amount of money that’s then available in the investment sector of the economy.”

Mr Hart said the unintended consequences of government spending were not often appreciated.


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