Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will release the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the fourth quarter of 2009 this week, and economists are cautiously upbeat about it.
South Africa eased out of its first recession after 17 years in the third quarter of last year.
“We expecting it to be quite better at 2.6% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised,” Nedbank economist Carmen Altenkirch said on Monday.
South Africa’s GDP for the third quarter of 2009 increased by 0.9%.
Altenkirch said the manufacturing sector was likely to contribute favourably to GDP. “The sector has improved over several months as a result of pick up of demand globally. There has also been improvement in the construction sector,” she said.
Investment Solutions senior economist Chris Hart told BuaNews: “We are definitely looking at an improvement although not much but things like mining should experience some growth. Manufacturing is still in the doldrums particularly with vehicles,”
Standard Bank is expecting a 3.2% quarter-on-quarter improvement. “This is due to the upside result of improved manufacturing, electricity consumption and wholesale trade data,” said economist Danelee van Dyk.
The economists cautioned, however, that the recovery of the country’s economy will be slow.
Consumer inflation
Additional to the GDP figures, Stats SA will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January on Wednesday.
In December, CPI, which is used to measure inflation, came in at 6.3%. “We expect it to stay above six percent with the contributors still being base effects from last year and the strength of the Rand,” said Hart.
Standard Bank is forecasting inflation to come in at 6.4%.
“It will increase marginally higher due to technical base effects but it should return to the target by March,” Van Dyk said, adding that food inflation played a key role in keeping inflation low and was likely to continue doing so for the rest of the year.
Commenting on the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee next month, Van Dyk said the GDP figures would have no bearing on the central bank’s decision regarding rates unless the economy performed badly.
Article courtesy of southafrica.info
